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2010 Oscar Predictions

2010 Oscar Predictions

Okay I’m done now :)

And the winner is … NOT ME! lol 8/21 is my final score. Just 2 better than last year. I really thought I’d do at least a little better than that. It was still a far from disappointing night, though. I think back to last year’s Slumdog sweep and I don’t know how my love of Oscar even survived that. Baldwin/Martin gags were lame but made me laugh buckets … even Sandra Bullock earned her win with a beautifully engineered speech. And I don’t think I’ll ever be able to go back to regular Moët after sipping a Grand Vintage over 4 hours!

Wrong! Best Picture: Up in the Air (that’s my final answer) I still really want Up in the Air, but feel like Inglourious Basterds is the one I’ll be most happy with in years to come. I’ll be fine with Avatar or The Hurt Locker
Correct! Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker) I’m fairly convinced this is hers.
Wrong! Best Actor: Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker) I don’t want Jeff Bridges to win this (if he does, I’ll pretend it’s for The Big Lebowski). I’d prefer Jeremy Renner of The Hurt Locker, and this is the first time I’ve ever really been happy with a Clooney nomination. I’ve still not seen A Single Man. Really, anyone but Bridges or Freeman (I didn’t think either were very good at all).
Wrong! Best Actress: Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia) As with Bridges in the Actor category, I don’t want Bullock to win this (if she does, I’ll pretend it’s for 28 Days). Until I saw Julie & Julia the other day (review soon hopefully), I was Gabby Sidibe all the way on this – it just doesn’t seem they could give the Oscar to Mo’Nique and then not recognise her too, and she is fantastic in Precious (review of that soon too). Then I saw Julie & Julia and I haven’t seen a more joyous movie all year. It’s the first time in my lifetime that Meryl Streep has been nominated and I actually really wanted her to win. I haven’t seen The Last Station.
Correct! Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds) One of the few cases where I couldn’t be happier with the favourite.
Correct! Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique (Precious) I’d love for one of the Up in the Air girls to win but even I can’t pick just one so I concede it must be Mo’Nique’s.
Wrong! Best Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds (Quentin Tarantino) I wish this was a bigger no brainer than it seems…
Wrong! Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air (Jason Reitman) This seems to be the only one I can seriously hope for for my favourite movie of the year.
Correct! Best Editing: The Hurt Locker I thought I was as torn on this category as the other smaller tech categories, then what Roger Ebert wrote in his predix made me realise why my gut had chosen The Hurt Locker and now I’m certain. This is almost as deserving of a win as Thelma Schoonmaker’s work on The Departed was 3 years ago.
Wrong! Best Cinematography: The Hurt Locker
Wrong! Best Animated Feature: The Princess and the Frog This might be one of my “wasted predix” but I just found this one so much better than the other nominees.
Correct! Best Art Direction: Avatar One of the few you really can’t argue that this movie actually deserves.
Wrong! Best Costume Design: The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus Just ‘cos of the ones I’ve seen this was the movie I liked most, but not that much. Inglourious Basterds shoulda been in here.
Correct! Best Make-Up: Star Trek Another “meh” category. I simply haven’t seen the other nominees.
Correct! Best Visual Effects: Avatar No-brainer of the year.
Wrong! Best Sound Effects Editing: Inglourious Basterds Shrugs lol. Another I might change before the show. None really stood out greatly to me as better than the others.
Wrong! Best Sound Mixing: Avatar See above. Just, nothing for Transformers 2, please.
Wrong! Best Score: The Hurt Locker I swapped this out of my nominations predix for the Public Enemies score at the last minute and was surprised when it came up. I watched the movie again a week or so ago and was reminded why I originally thought it should be nominated.
Wrong! Best Original Song: “Almost There”, The Princess and the Frog I know, it’s probably “Crazy Heart”, but I just didn’t even like the song in that movie let alone Bridges. I’d much prefer my fave song from Princess get this, like Disney used to.
Correct! Best Documentary Feature: The Cove I’m sure this one’s between Food Inc. and The Cove (reviews to come soon hopefully), and I think Food Inc is a much more important movie, but The Cove packs an emotional punch you just can’t forget and with its closing line about “if we can’t stop this, than we can’t stop anything“ (words to that effect), arguably does make it more important too than the all-embracing Food Inc.
Wrong! Best Foreign Language Film: The White Ribbon has it, I think. Pretty sure this is between The White Ribbon and Un Prophete … I hope to see both in the next couple of days…

I also hope to watch 6 of the nominated shorts before Sunday, in which case I might include those categories for the first time. (thought there were some on Sky Anytime but they were old ones, grr). Anyway, that is all for now :)

Nominations Predictions from earlier

*Currently tallying*… doing this way too fast, alert me if I’ve made an error with any of my red/green right/wrong indicators :-P

53/96 … almost exactly the same as last year!

Okay, I think I’m done. Nominations are tomorrow. As always, my final list is a complex combination of actual informed expectations, personal preferences, and the odd wild card, with the final deciding factor always being “does it sit well with me?” 2010 has been that rare year where I can truly say all of the following sit pretty darn well with me, and that happens to match up nicely with the prevailing trends on predicting sites. As I’ve said already, once I saw Up in the Air and loved it so darn much, I knew everything was gonna be okay.

Edit: lol and I already made a swap – Michael Gambon is the only thing I think Half-Blood Prince should be up for. It’s almost less likely even than Isabelle Fuhrman but I’ll probably get less WTFs for it :-P

Best Picture

Best Director

Best Actor

Best Actress

Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actress

Best Original Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay

Best Editing

Best Cinematography

Best Score

Best Original Song

Best Sound Editing

Best Sound Mixing

Best Animated Feature

Best Visual Effects

Best Art Direction

Best Costume Design

Best Make-Up

  • Star Trek Correct!
  • District 9 Wrong!
  • The Road Wrong!

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This entry was posted on Friday, March 5th, 2010 at 5:10 pm and is filed under lists, Movie Reviews. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.

  • oscar

    BEST FILM
    1939
    A Serious Man
    All Good Things
    Amelia
    An Education
    Away We Go
    Biutiful
    The Boat that Rocked
    Bright Star
    Brothers
    Broken Embraces
    Che, The Argentine, Part II
    Chéri
    Chloe
    The City of Your Final Destination
    Coco Avant Chanel
    The Countess
    Crazy Heart
    Creation
    Crossing Over
    Dirt Music
    Dorian Gray
    Edge of Darkness
    Everybody’s Fine
    Get Low
    Good
    Green Zone
    Flying Lessons
    From Time to Time
    Harry Brown
    Home
    The Hurt Locker
    The Informant
    Inglorious Bastards
    Invictus
    Is Anybody There?
    Julie & Julia
    Last Night
    Leaves of Grass
    Long time gone
    Love Ranch
    Lovely, Still
    The Lovely Bones
    Mammoth
    My Suicide
    My Own Love Song
    Nine
    Nottingham
    The Private Lives of Pippa Lee
    Public Enemies
    The Road
    My Sister’s Keeper
    Shanghai
    State of Play
    Sherlock Holmes
    Shuttter Island
    Solitary Man
    The Soloist
    The Stoning of Soraya M.
    The Taking of Pelham 123
    Taking Woodstock
    The Tempest
    Tetro
    The Tree of Life
    Up in the Air
    The Wolfman
    Whatever Whings
    Where the Wild Things
    Within the Whirlwind
    The Young Victoria

    BEST ANIMATED FILM
    9
    Astro Boy
    A Christmas Carol
    Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
    Coraline
    The Fantastic Mr. Fox
    G-Force
    Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs
    Planet 51
    Mary and Max
    Monsters vs. Aliens
    The Princess and the Frog
    Ponyo on the Cliff by the Sea
    Vanilla Gorilla
    Up

    BEST DIRECTOR
    Stephen Poliakoff – 1939
    Andrew Jarecki – All Good Things
    Mira Nair – Amelia
    Lone Scherfig – An Education
    Sam Mendes – Away We Go
    Tony Goldwyn – Betty Anne Waters
    Richard Curtis – The Boat that Rocked
    Jane Campion – Bright Star
    Jim Sheridan – Brothers
    Pedro Almodóvar – Broken Embraces
    Steven Soderbergh – Che, The Argentine, Part II
    Stephen Frears – Chéri
    Atom Egoyan – Chloe
    James Ivory – The City of Your Final Destination
    Jon Amiel – Creation
    Wayne Kramer – Crossing Over
    Phillip Noyce – Dirt Music
    Martin Campbell – Edge of Darkness
    Kirk Jones – Everybody’s Fine
    Aaron Schneider – Get Low
    Vicente Amorin – Good
    Paul Greengrass – Green Zone
    Clint Eastwood – Invictus
    Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker
    Steven Soderbergh – The Informant
    Quentin Tarantino – Inglorious Bastards
    John Crowley – Is Anybody There?
    Nora Ephron – Julie & Julia
    Tim Blake Nelson – Leaves of Grass
    Adam Davidson – Long time gone
    Peter Jackson – The Lovely Bones
    Taylor Hadford – Love Ranch
    David Lee Miller – My Suicide
    Rob Marshall – Nine
    Ridley Scott – Nottingham
    Rebecca Miller – The Private Lives of Pippa Lee
    Michael Mann – Public Enemies
    John Hillcoat – The Road
    Guy Ritchie – Sherlock Holmes
    Martin Scorsese – Shuttter Island
    Brian Koppelman & Davil Devien – Solitary Man
    Joe Wright – The Soloist
    Julie Taymor – The Tempest
    Kevin Macdonald – State of Play
    Tony Scott – The Taking of Pelham 123
    Ang Lee – Taking Woodstock
    Francis Ford Coppola – Tetro
    Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life
    Joe Johnston – The Wolfman
    Woody Allen – Whatever Works
    Spike Jonze – Where the Wild Things
    Michael Haneke – The White Ribbon
    Marleen Gorris – Within the Whirlwind

    BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
    Javier Bardem – Biutiful
    Paul Bettany – Creation
    Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart
    Michael Caine – Harry Brown
    Michael Caine – Is Anybody There?
    George Clooney – Up in the Air
    Russell Crowe – Dirt Music
    Russell Crowe – Nottingham
    Russell Crowe – State of Play
    John Cusack – Shanghai
    Willem Dafoe – Antichrist
    Matt Damon – Green Zone
    Matt Damon – The Informant
    Daniel Day-Lewis – Nine
    Benicio Del Toro – The Wolfman
    Benicio Del Toro – Che, The Argentine, Part II
    Johnny Depp – Public Enemies
    Robert De Niro – Everybody’s Fine
    Leonardo DiCaprio – Shuttter Island
    Michael Douglas – Solitary Man
    Robert Downey Jr. – The Soloist
    Robert Downey Jr. – Sherlock Holmes
    Colin Farrell – Crazy Heart
    Morgan Freeman – Invictus
    Rupert Friend – Chéri
    Mel Gibson – Edge of Darkness
    Ryan Gosling – All Good Things
    Jake Gyllenhaal – Brothers
    Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Boat that Rocked
    Anthony Hopkins – The City of Your Final Destination
    Jeremy Irons – The Tempest
    Martin Landau – Lovely, Still
    Demitri Martin – Taking Woodstock
    Ewan McGregor – Amelia
    Viggo Mortensen – Good
    Viggo Mortensen – The Road
    Bill Murray – Get Low
    Liam Neeson – Chloe
    Bill Nighy – 1939
    Edward Norton – Leaves of Grass
    Joe Pesci – Love Ranch
    Brad Pitt – Inglorious Bastards
    Brad Pitt – The Tree of Life
    Christopher Plummer – The Last Station
    Adam Sandler – Funny People
    Peter Sarsgaard – An Education
    David Strathairn – The Tempest
    Michael Stuhlberg – A Serious Man
    Gabriel Sunday – My Suicide
    Denzel Washington – The Taking of Pelham 123
    Mark Wahlberg – The Lovely Bones
    Ben Whishaw – Bright Star

    BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
    Amy Adams – Julie & Julia
    Shohreh Aghdashloo – The Stoning of Soraya M.
    Kate Beckinsale – Everbody’s Fine
    Halle Berry – Frankie & Alice
    Emily Blunt – The Young Victoria
    Ellen Burstyn – Lovely, Still
    Jennifer Connelly – Creation
    Abbie Cornish – Bright Star
    Penélope Cruz – Broken Embraces
    Julie Delpy – The Countess
    Cameron Diaz – My Sister’s Keeper
    Romola Garai – 1939
    Marcia Gay Harden – Home
    Rebecca Hall – Dorian Gray
    Keira Knightley – Last Night
    Gong Li – Shanghai
    Laura Linney – The City of Your Final Destination
    Kate Mera – Flying Lessons
    Helen Mirren – The Tempest
    Helen Mirren – Love Ranch
    Demi Moore – Happy Tears
    Carey Mulligan – An Education
    Michelle Pfeiffer – Chéri
    Natalie Portman – Brothers
    Christina Ricci – Long time gone
    Saorise Ronan – The Lovely Bones
    Maya Rudolph – Away We Go
    Amanda Seyfried – Chloe
    Gabourey Sidibe – Precious
    Maggie Smith – From Time to Time
    Hilary Swank – Amelia
    Hilary Swank – Betty Anne Waters
    Audrey Tautou – Coco Avant Chanel
    Charlize Theron – The Road
    Charlize Theron – The Burning Plain
    Emma Thompson – The Boat that Rocked
    Emily Watson – Within the Whirlwind
    Rachel Weisz – Agora
    Rachel Weisz – Dirt Music
    Michelle Williams – Mammoth
    Evan Rachel Wood – Whatever Works
    Robin Wright Penn – The Private Lives of Pippa Lee
    Renee Zellweger – My Own Love Song

    BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    Ben Affleck – State of Play
    Alan Arkin – The Private Lives of Pippa Lee
    Philip Baker Hall – All Good Things
    Alec Baldwin – My Sister’s Keeper
    Christian Bale – Public Enemies
    Henry Cavill – Whatever Works
    Chris Cooper – The Tempest
    Billy Crudup – Public Enemies
    Alan Cumming – The Tempest
    Matt Damon – Invictus
    Jeff Daniels – Away We Go
    Danny DeVito – Solitary Man
    Richard Dreyfuss – Leaves of Grass
    Robert Duvall – Get Low
    Robert Duvall – The Road
    Jackie Earle Haley – Shuttter Island
    Colin Farrell – Dirt Music
    Jamie Foxx – The Soloist
    Harrison Ford – Crossing Over
    Richard Gere – Amelia
    Paul Giamatti – The Last Station
    Brendan Gleeson – Green Zone
    Djimon Hounsou – The Tempest
    Jason Isaacs – Good
    Jason Isaacs – Green Zone
    Richard Kind – A Serious Man
    Ben Kingsley – Shuttter Island
    Jude Law – Sherlock Holmes
    Ray Liotta – Crossing Over
    Christopher Lee – 1939
    Josh Lucas – Long time gone
    Anthony Hopkins – The Wolfman
    Tobey Maguire – Brothers
    James McAvoy – The Last Station
    Jeremy Northam – Creation
    Alfred Molina – The Tempest
    Bill Nighy – The Boat that Rocked
    Sean Penn – The Tree of Life
    Keanu Reeves – The Private Lives of Pippa Lee
    Sam Rockwell – Betty Anne Waters
    Liev Schreiber- Taking Woodstock
    Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Road
    Timothy Spall – From Time to Time
    Jim Sturgess – Crossing Over
    John Travolta – The Taking of Pelham 123
    Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones
    Max Von Sydow – Shuttter Island
    Christoph Waltz – Inglorious Bastards
    Robin Williams – World’s Greatest Dad
    Ray Winstone – Edge of Darkness

    BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    Norma Aleandro – The City of Your Final Destination
    Kim Basinger – The Burning Plain
    Drew Barrymore – Everybody’s Fine
    Kathy Bates – Chéri
    Kate Beckinsale – Everybody’s Fine
    Maria Bello – The Private Lives of Pippa Lee
    Monica Bellucci – The Private Lives of Pippa Lee
    Emily Blunt – The Wolfman
    Abigail Breslin – My Sister’s Keeper
    Jessica Chastain – The Tree of Life
    Julie Christie – 1939
    Patricia Clarkson – Shuttter Island
    Patricia Clarkson – Whatever Works
    Marion Cotillard – Nine
    Penélope Cruz – Nine
    Judi Dench – Nine
    Minnie Driver – Betty Anne Waters
    Kate Hudson – Nine
    Anjelica Huston – Long time gone
    Ashley Judd – Crossing Over
    Catherine Keener – The Soloist
    Nicole Kidman – Nine
    Melissa Leo – Betty Anne Waters
    Juliette Lewis – Betty Anne Waters
    Sophia Loren – Nine
    Virginia Madsen – Amelia
    Rachel McAdams – Sherlock Holmes
    Helen Mirren – The Last Station
    Mo’Nique – Precious
    Julianne Moore – Chloe
    Julianne Moore – The Private Lives of Pippa Lee
    Emily Mortimer – Shutter Island
    Amy Ryan – Green Zone
    Winona Ryder – The Private Lives of Pippa Lee
    Susan Sarandon – Leaves of Grass
    Susan Sarandon – The Lovely Bones
    Susan Sarandon – Solitary Man
    Sissy Spacek – Get Low
    Imelda Staunton – Taking Woodstock
    Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia
    Emma Thompson – An Education
    Emma Thompson – The Boat that Rocked
    Rachel Weisz – The Lovely Bones
    Michelle Williams – Shuttter Island

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
    Amelia
    Brothers
    Chéri
    Coco Avant Chanel
    Crazy Heart
    Creation
    Dorian Gray
    Get Low
    Good
    Green Zone
    From Time to Time
    The Informant
    Invictus
    Julie & Julia
    Long time gone
    The Lovely Bones
    Nine
    The Private Lives of Pippa Lee
    The Road
    Sherlock Holmes
    Shuttter Island
    The Soloist
    The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3
    Taking Woodstock
    Up in the Air
    The Wolfman
    Within the Whirlwind

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
    1939
    A Serious Man
    All Good Things
    An Education
    Away We Go
    Biutiful
    The Boat that Rocked
    Bright Star
    Broken Embraces
    Che, The Argentine, Part II
    Chloe
    The Countess
    Crossing Over
    Dirt Music
    Edge of Darkness
    Everybody’s Fine
    Flying Lessons
    Harry Brown
    Home
    The Hurt Locker
    Inglorious Bastards
    Is Anybody There?
    Last Night
    Leaves of Grass
    Love Ranch
    Lovely, Still
    Mammoth
    My Own Love Song
    My Suicide
    Nottingham
    Public Enemies
    My Sister’s Keeper
    Shanghai
    Solitary Man
    State of Play
    The Stoning of Soraya M.
    The Tempest
    Tetro
    The Tree of Life
    Up
    Whatever Whings
    Where the Wild Things
    World’s Greatest Dad
    The Young Victoria

  • oscar

    BEST FILM
    01) Shuttter Island
    02) Nine
    03) Invictus
    04) The Lovely Bones
    05) Chéri
    06) An Education
    07) Whatever Whings
    08) The Soloist
    09) Taking Woodstock
    10) Public Enemies

    BEST DIRECTOR
    01) Martin Scorsese – Shuttter Island
    02) Clint Eastwood – Invictus
    03) Stephen Frears – Chéri
    04) Rob Marshall – Nine
    05) Peter Jackson – The Lovely Bones
    06) Lone Scherfig – An Education
    07) Woody Allen – Whatever Works
    08) Jane Campion – Bright Star
    09) Mira Nair – Amelia
    10) Taylor Hadford – Love Ranch

    BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
    01) Leonardo DiCaprio – Shuttter Island
    02) Michael Caine – Is Anybody There?
    03) Daniel Day-Lewis – Nine
    04) Morgan Freeman – Invictus
    05) Christopher Plummer – The Last Station
    06) Peter Sarsgaard – An Education
    07) Joe Pesci – Love Ranch
    08) Robert De Niro – Everybody’s Fine
    09) Brad Pitt – The Tree of Life
    10) Johnny Depp – Public Enemies

    BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
    01) Michelle Pfeiffer – Chéri
    02) Audrey Tautou – Coco Avant Chanel
    03) Hilary Swank – Amelia
    04) Emily Watson – Within the Whirlwind
    05) Carey Mulligan – An Education
    06) Helen Mirren – The Last Station
    07) Robin Wright Penn – The Privates Lives of Pipa Lee
    08) Jennifer Connelly – Creation
    09) Carey Mulligan – An Education
    10) Saoirse Ronan – The Lovely Bones

    BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    01) Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones
    02) Bill Nighy – The Boat that Rocked
    03) Matt Damon – Invictus
    04) Ben Kingsley – Shuttter Island
    05) James McAvoy – The Last Station
    06) Christoph Waltz – Inglorious Bastards
    07) Jason Isaacs – Good
    08) Christian Bale – Public Enemies
    09) Jeff Daniels – Away We Go
    10) Ewan McGregor – Amelia

    BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
    01) Judi Dench – Nine
    02) Kathy Bates – Chéri
    03) Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia
    04) Rachel Weisz – The Lovely Bones
    05) Patricia Clarkson – Whatever Works
    06) Imelda Staunton – Taking Woodstock
    07) Emily Mortimer – Shutter Island
    08) Susan Sarandon – The Lovely Bones
    09) Penélope Cruz – Nine
    10) Michelle Williams – Shutter Island

    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
    01) Shuttter Island
    02) Chéri
    03) The Lovely Bones
    04) Nine
    05) Invictus
    06) The Private Lives of Pippa Lee
    07) Amelia
    08) Within the Whirlwind
    09) Julie & Julia
    10) From Time to Time

    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
    01) Up
    02) Is Anybody There?
    03) An Education
    04) Tetro
    05) Whatever Whings
    06) Inglorious Bastards
    07) Public Enemies
    08) A Serious Man
    09) My Sister’s Keeper
    10) Love Ranch

  • http://www.caspermyers.com Melody

    Awesome Oscar, I need to update this post some time soon and haven’t been following all this enough, you’ve given me a lot to look into, thanks :)

  • Fernando

    BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE: SARAH MICHELLE GELLAR FOR VERONIKA DECIDES TO DIE, NO ONE PUT HER ON THE LIST FOR A POSSIBLE NOMINNE, BUT I THINK SHE DESERVE, HER PERFORMACE IS AMAZING….

  • Whitney

    I know that many probably disagree with this but Joan Cusack should be nominated for supporting actress for my sister’s keeper. Her performance as Judge De Salvo for the few minutes she was in the movie was epic. She had total control of her part.

  • http://www.caspermyers.com Melody

    I didn’t know Cusack was in that movie, I was putting off seeing it but no more, I love her :) I really need to update this list too, lol.

  • Roberto

    How about Gong Li for Shanghai(Lead)? Come’on she steals any movie she’s in. In more ways than one.

  • Steve

    I haven’t seen it yet, but the buzz about “Precious” seems to suggest a lock in the best picture, actress and supporting actress categories. Also, Colin Firth in “A Single Man” seems to be a lock in the best actor category.