2009 Oscar Predictions 2009 Oscar Predictions

February 22nd, 2009 by surlaroute

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Okay, it’s that time to predict the winners! Now, we all know it’s Slumdog’s year, so this is literally gonna be even more on the my opinion side of things than ever. And for the record, anybody who seriously thinks that was the best movie of last year needs their head examining (for the additional record: I’m not even so sure my pick is either – I’m not sure if any of the nominees are). As I said to Babycake: if Slumdog sweeps, Hugh Jackman better be freaking awesome or my joy from the night will consist solely of drinking myself into a stunken druper. I’ve got a few reviews to post after this but I’ll bump it before the show again, and I’ll be Tweeting the whole thing live as I watch this year rather than the awkward blogging of last year.

6 out of 21: hehe. Well it looks like Hugh Jackman got lost in the outback for the last hour. We knew it’d go that way but godawlmighty someone needed to get onstage and sing the “You’re Boring” song at the Academy still. The few fleeting wonders were worth it, though, and aside from a few odd mentions (Space Chimps, Rambo, anyone?) in the montages, it was a great celebration of film, which is all it’s really about in the end.

PICTURE: Benjamin Button Wrong!
DIRECTOR: David Fincher, Benjamin Button Wrong!
ACTOR: Frank Langella, Frost / Nixon Wrong!
ACTRESS: Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married Wrong!
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Philip Seymour Hoffmann, Doubt (because part of me really would just love to see what happened if Ledger didn’t win, and another part of me just thinks it was a better performance) Wrong!
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona Right!
SCREENPLAY: WALL-E Wrong!
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Doubt Wrong!
EDITING: The Dark Knight Wrong!
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Changeling Wrong!
SCORE: WALL-E Wrong!
SONG: “Down to Earth”, WALL-E Wrong!
SOUND EDIT: WALL-E Wrong!
SOUND MIX: WALL-E Wrong!
VISUAL EFFECTS: Benjamin Button Right!
ART DIRECTION: Benjamin Button Right!
COSTUME: Australia (really don’t know which to pick, but I surprised myself guessing this one right at the nominations stage, so I’ll keep to it) Wrong!
MAKE-UP: Benjamin Button Right!
ANIMATED: WALL-E Right!
DOCUMENTARY: Man on Wire (haven’t seen the others) Right!
FOREIGN: Waltz with Bashir (haven’t seen the others) Wrong!
_______________________________________________________________

THE NOMINATIONS:

TOTAL … drum roll please : 54 / 97 … w00t my usual 50% :)

Best Picture

Best Director

Best Actor

Best Actress

Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actress

Best Original Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay

Best Editing

Best Cinematography

Best Art Direction

Best Costume Design

Best Make-Up

Best Score

Best Original Song

  • Jon Brion, “Little Person” – Synecdoche, New York Wrong!
  • Peter Gabriel, “Down to Earth” – Wall·E Right!
  • Bruce Springsteen – The Wrestler Wrong!
  • Miley Cyrus, “I Thought I Lost You” – Bolt Wrong!
  • Jamie Cullum, “Gran Torino” – *Gran Torino”:http://ambival.net/movies/gran-torino Wrong!

(WTF, did I miss something?!)

Best Sound

Best Sound Effects Editing

Best Visual Effects

Best Animated Feature

Best Documentary Feature

  • Encounters at the End of the World Right!
  • Man on Wire WIN Right!
  • Trouble the Water Right!
  • Glass: A Portrait of Philip in Twelve Parts Wrong!
  • They Killed Sister Dorothy Wrong!

Best Foreign Language Feature

(really I should be boycotting this category for the non-inclusion of Let the Right One In and even Gomorrha though I haven’t seen that one yet, but I’m often lucky here and anything to boost the points lol) (lol … see?)

  • Waltz with Bashir Right!
  • The Baader Meinhof Complex Right!
  • The Class Right!
  • Everlasting Moments Wrong!
  • Departures Right!

Tally

12: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
10: The Dark Knight
8: Wall•E
7: Gran Torino
6: Slumdog Millionaire | Doubt
5: Revolutionary Road | The Wrestler
4: Changeling | Milk
3: In Bruges
2: Mamma Mia! | Happy-Go-Lucky | Synecdoche, New York | Bolt | Waltz With Bashir | Frost/Nixon
1: Redbelt | Tropic Thunder | The Reader | The Fall | Australia | Hellboy II: The Golden Army

  • mlb

    Best actress Sally Hawkins … Happy-go-lucky?

  • adorian

    I think you should reverse Langella/Sheen. Langella is the lead; Sheen is supporting. (That’s the way it played out at the Tonys.)

    Streep and PS Hoffman for Doubt
    Kidman for Australia
    Jolie for Changeling

    del Toro for Argentine

    I fear Mamma Mia is going to be a big disaster. I would substitute Australia for its best film slot.

  • http://www.caspermyers.com Casper

    thanks, Sheen and Langella swapped – I don’t really know the play :)

  • Sebastian

    Ok, your predictions are just not right.

    First of all, I’m a Meryl Streep fan but I know a Best Picture nomination for Mamma Mia! is not going to happen. Anyway, Meryl will be nominated for Best Actress for her role on Doubt (and the movie will be a Best Picture contender), and she’ll be against Kate Winslet, Angelina Jolie, Nicole Kidman and Julianne Moore.

    I hope Mamma Mia! is as good as early reviews of screenings says, but it’s not Oscar material.

    Meryl will get a nomination for Doubt and the movie will be a heavy contender, as well as Australia and some many others you forgot

  • http://emilywatson matias

    Emily will win the Oscar for this! She certainly deserves recognition for her talent!!!!!!!She’s been out of the Oscar spotlight for too long. She’s due for another nomination!
    Within the Whirlwind trailer: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1142804/board

  • David

    Michelle Pfeiffer will be nominated for Cheri and its a long time coming.

  • Caroline Cao

    For Best Sound and Sound Mixing, WALL-E should be included. Ben Brutt worked very amazinly on sound. After all, voice actors were not used for robotic characters, using objects were used to make the talking sound like words.

    And listening to the score of WALL-E, I think it’s beautiful enough for a best score nomination.

    And for best actor, you should consider Robert Downey from Ironman.

    And in Animated features, I got the feeling Kung Fu Panda deserves to be nominated.

  • http://www.caspermyers.com Melody

    ahhhh I don’t know why I forgot putting Wall•E in the sound cats, lol, thanks Caroline. The Pixar movies I normally put in there by default lol. I’ll hold off on the score for now, same with Ironman till I’ve actually seen them (I know, shameful that I haven’t seen them yet). Kung Fu Panda … meh, again I might flip around after I see it but for now I fear that being nominated as it’ll push out either Coraline or Despereaux which I just know I’m gonna adore the both of them :) Unless they make it a 5 way contest this year – there’s certainly enough of ‘em, I keep forgetting about Igor too.

  • panda

    I think Kung Fu Panda will be nominee for Best Score.

  • Sal

    What about Thomas Haden Church and Ellen Page for their supporting roles in Smart People (beloved by the NY Times, LA Times, Wall Street Journal)???? Also original screenplay for Smart People, though Synecdoche, NY might be tough to beat in that category.

  • Joachim Unovel

    Maybe you should consider putting SMART PEOPLE in the best original screenplay category. Plus, I thought we all at ambival liked Ellen Page and Sarah J.

  • Heath Newman

    Picture

    AUSTRALIA ( looks promising with good buzz)
    the curious case of benjmain button (we’ll see)
    the dark knight (great movie but will have to be in critics favor)
    Milk ( will have to be a good drama)
    revolutionary road ( looks like hollywood will like)

    Actor Leading

    Frank Langella FROS/ NIXON ( Might get is due)
    brad pitt the curious case of benjamin button ( great actor might win if movies good)
    viggo mortenson the road ( if he really shines he has a veyr good chance of his previous nomination)
    benico del toro geurilla ( possible)
    sean penn ( being gay in his role he will be nominated but will not win)

    Directing will be tough I’ll update this after december 25

    Actress and supporting actress will be updated after december 25

    Sup. Actor

    Heath Ledger will win no doubt

    Visual Effects

    Iron Man
    Prince Caspian
    The Dark Knight

    Sound Mixing

    Australia
    The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
    Iron Man
    WALL-E
    Appaloosa

    Sound Editing

    Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
    WALL-E
    The Dark Knight
    Australia
    Iron Man

  • Joe Yates

    Ok, ok so there are SO many amazing films that are going to miss out this year that shouldn’t.

    I feel Mamma Mia should get something, Musicals in the past tend to do really well at the Oscars, look at Caberet and Chicago which means Mamma Mia could, and may I say deserves, to win something. Possibily best adapted screenplay, would it count in that catagory?

    Meryl Streep has been waiting 25 years for another Oscar…and this year she deserves it! With out a shadow of a Doubt (no pun intended). I’ve seen the trailer for doubt and it looks awesome but I hope she wins for Mamma Mia, I really do! That was tour de force! While all the other possible contenders are worthy I feel the films that Meryl has missed out on in the past for instance Adaptation, The Hours, Bridges Of Madison County Out of Africa just to name but a few show that her body of work as a whole surpasses any other actress living or dead!

    If I had my way she’d win every year!

    Meryl for Queen of the world nomination please?!

  • http://funkyglasses.blogspot.com Jen Jen

    I have a feeling Button will be up for best picture, though I hear the length of the film is problematic (meaning… bo-0-o-ring). I haven’t heard any other winter movies with Oscar buzz except Button and Dark Knight.

    Or maybe I’m just out of the loop.

  • Sal

    Thomas Haden Church and Ellen Page for their supporting roles in “Smart People.” Maybe original screenplay nomination, too.

  • Brendan

    I think Synecdoche,NY has a big chance at taking the oscar for Best Makeup

  • Holden

    Here are my nominations.

    Best Picture

    The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
    The Dark Knight*
    Gran Torino
    Slumdog Millionaire
    Revolutionary Road

    Other Possibilities: Australia, Doubt, Milk, Rachel Getting Married, Frost/Nixon, Changeling, Defiance

    Best Director

    Danny Boyle “Slumdog Millionaire”
    Clint Eastwood “Gran Torino”
    David Fincher “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Sam Mendes “Revolutionary Road”
    Christopher Nolan “The Dark Knight*

    Other Possibilities: Australia, Doubt, Milk, Rachel Getting Married, Frost/Nixon, Changeling, Defiance

    Best Actor

    Benicio Del Toro “The Argentine/Guerilla”
    Leonardo DiCaprio “Revolutionary Road”
    Frank Langella “Frost/Nixon”
    Sean Penn “Milk”*
    Mickey Rourke “The Wrestler”

    Other Possibilities: Brad Pitt “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”,”, Phillip Seymour Hoffman “Synecdoche, New York”
    Rev Patel “Slumdog Millionaire” Viggo Mortenson “The Road”

    Best Actress

    Anna Hathaway “Rachel Getting Married”
    Sally Hawkins “Happy-Go-Lucky”
    Nicole Kidman “Australia”
    Meryl Streep “Doubt”
    Kate Winslett “Revolutionary Road”*

    Other Possibilities: Kristin Scott Thomas “I’ve Loved for So Long” Kate Winslett “The Reader”

    Best Supporting Actor

    Josh Brolin “Milk”
    Emile Hirsch “Milk”
    Phillip Seymour Hoffman “Doubt”
    Heath Ledger “The Dark Knight”*
    Michael Sheen “Frost/Nixon”

    Other Possibilities: James Franco “Milk”, Aaron Eckhart “The Dark Knight”, Michael Shannon “Revolutionary Road”, John Malkovich “Changeling”, “Burn After Reading”, Brad Pitt “Burn After Reading”

    Best Supporting Actress

    Amy Adams “Doubt*
    Cute Blanchett “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
    Penelope Cruz “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
    Viola Davis “Doubt”
    Frances McDormand “Burn After Reading”

    Other Possibilities: Amy Ryan “Changeling” , Kathy Bates “Revolutionary Road”

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    The Curious Case of Benjamin Button *
    Doubt
    Frost/Nixon
    Revolutionary Road
    Slumdog Millionaire

    Other Possibilities: The Reader, The Dark Knight,

    Best Original Screenplay

    Burn After Reading
    Happy-Go-Lucky
    Milk*
    Synecdoche, New York
    WALL-E

    Other Possibilities: Changeling Kung Fu Panda, Australia, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Rachel Getting Married

    Best Animated Feature

    Kung Fu Panda
    WALL-E*
    Waltz With Bashir

    Other Possibilities: Bolt, Horton Hears a Hoo, 9,

    Best Documentary Feature

    Gonzo: The Life and Work of Hunter S. Thompson
    Man on Wire
    Religilous *
    Shine A Light
    Trouble With Water

    Other Possibilities: American Teen, Bigger, Stronger, Faster*, An American Carol, Sputnik Mania

    Best Film Editing

    Australia
    The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
    The Dark Knight*
    Revolutionary Road
    Slumdog Millionaire

    Other Possibilities: Milk, Doubt, Changeling, Gran Torino.

    Best Cinematography

    Australia
    Changeling
    The Dark Knight
    Doubt*
    Revolutionary Road

    Other Possibilities: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Slumdog Millionaire, Defiance,

    Best Sound Mixing

    Australia
    The Dark Knight*
    Defiance
    Iron Man
    WALL-E

    Other Possibilities: The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian, Kung Fu Panda, Hellboy II: The Golden Army

    Best Sound Editing

    Australia
    The Dark Knight*
    Defiance
    Iron Man
    WALL-E

    Other Possibilities: The Road, The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian, Kung Fu Panda, Hellboy II: The Golden Army

    Best Original Score

    The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
    Defiance
    Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
    Revolutionary Road
    WALL-E*

    Other Possibilities: The Dark Knight, Changeling, High School Musical 3: Senior Year.

    Best Original Song

    The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian “The Call”
    Quantum of Solace “Another Way to Die”
    Trouble With Water “Trouble With Water”
    WALL-E “Down to Earth”*
    The Wrestler “The Wrestler”

    Other Possibilities: Sex in the City “All Dressed to Love”, High School Musical 3: Senior Year “Now or Never”

    Best Visual Effects

    The Dark Knight
    Hellboy II: The Golden Army
    Iron Man*

    Other Possibilities: The Day the Earth Stood Still, The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian

    Best Art Direction

    Australia
    The Curious Case of Benjamin Button*
    The Duchess
    Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
    Synecdoche, New York

    Other Possibilities: Revolutionary Road, Changeling, The Dark Knight, The Other Boleyn Girl

    Best Costume Design

    Australia
    Changeling
    The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
    The Duchess*
    The Other Boleyn Girl

    Other Possibilities: The Dark Knight, Revolutionary Road, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

    Best Make Up

    The Curious Case of Benjamin Button*
    The Dark Knight
    Hellboy II: The Golden Army

    Other Possibilities: The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull,

  • mrjoelcairo

    I agree with whoever said Smart People should be included for consideration. Thought the acting and script were good. Why does everyone forget spring release movies?

  • diego

    CHANGELING AND WALL-E FOR BEST PICTURE!

  • AJ

    Can someone here please please consider the Wrestler being one of the top movies of the year. Every one is saying Mickey Rourke is phenominal in it. I know many probably think a movie about wrestling would just show how bad the sport is but I know wrestling and it isn’t that bad. Also the Soloist with Downey Jr (What a year he’s having). and Jaime Fox. One thing I’ve been questioning is why the hell can’t a comedy like Knocked Up become an Oscar nominee. It was a movie that everyone loved and surprised everyone at the box office but gets left out because its a comedy.

    Best Picture:
    The Wrestler
    The Dark Knight
    Wall-E
    Let the Right One In

  • Sal

    Heard good things about Mickey Rourke in “The Wrestler.” I can’t wait to see it. I looks amazing. “Benjamin Button” seriously looks like a stinker. Boring, earnest, and over-produced. “Rachel’s Getting Married” was nothing short of genius. I’ll be surprised if it’s overlooked, especially for directing. Demme pulled amazing performances from every actor, even the ones with tiny parts. “The Soloist”: boring claptrap. While Heath Ledger was genius and will probably win, I’m hoping Thomas Haden Church gets a nom for “Smart People.” Ditto for Ellen Page. If you can’t tell, I’m a big fan of the little movie that was released last spring.

  • Kenny

    Hmmm….I guess there were not many good roles for non-whites this year. Maybe Queen Latifah for Bees? Will Smith for Seven? Any other Latinos other than Benicio and if you count Spaniards Penelope? Any Asians? Native Americans? Hmmm…..the academy does have a history of overlooking GREAT performances by non-whites…

  • http://www.caspermyers.com Melody

    heh, good point Kenny … you just made me wonder whatever happened to Spike Lee’s “Miracle at St. Anna” – though looking at the cast list for that, aside from Derek Luke I just see more white names (Joseph Gordon-Levitt, John Turturro and John Leguizamo) … this is gonna make a supporting actor nod for Robert Downey Jr. in “Tropic Thunder” even more awkward rofl …

  • happyhappy

    mamma mia?? it was good but not that good- i expect it to get some golden globe noms but not academy award, but i could be wrong because juno won last year… :/

  • Greg

    You missed “Wall-e” for Best Art Direction. Honesly, name a better designed film this year (the only ones coming close being The Dark Knight and Doubt).

  • meg7m

    i think charlie kaufman will be nominated in the best original screenplay category for synecdoche, new york…. or rather i hope:)

  • CSki

    I say that my fav films are Dark Knight and WALL-E. Looking at the nominations i think Wall-e should be nominated for almost everything because it is sooo unique, but i will be happy if it actually takes home at least 2 (animated film, and original song), but it deserves SO MUCH MORE. But it has to compeate against other movies, that will probably steal the light because of maturity of the story line, WALL-E’s is sooo simple but powerful!!!

    But i did REALLY LOVE Batman as well, and it deserves nominations for: Best movie, supporting actor, visual effects, original score, director, costume (only cause of the joker costume, new bat suit and two face’s two sided suit), sound mixing ect. but we’ll see what happens, i like the original preditions though :)

  • http://www.celibataire-endurci.com/ Jean Célibataire Endurci

    You nailed a few! My favorite movies this year were: WALL-E (it’s an unique animation film), The Curious Case of Benjamin Button(tho it has a very sad ending but in my opinion the writer was a genius), Vicky Cristina Barcelona(Penélope Cruz is fantastic and plaid her part with style), Slumdog Millionaire (very intriguing) and Milk(it’s a little awkward). I am very happy that this year’s winners were different from past wears winners. They had not so much special effects as the stories told were great