2011 Oscar Predictions 2011 Oscar Predictions

February 27th, 2011 by surlaroute

I haven’t changed any of these (except for the few technical categories I hadn’t picked yet), and still haven’t posted my reviews of half of them lol (don’t worry, when I finally get to posting again there’ll be tons: a lot are 90% finished in Evernote)… but just for ease of reading, here’s my straight list. So many of them are obvious, which is probably why my few exceptions are so bold :-P It’s all fun. I’ll be live tweeting the red carpet and show as per usual :)

Final Score: 11/24 (oh well, the usual 50/50… my usual 50%-ish, especially cool as I included the shorts, etc., and was more brutally hopeful than ever… till next year!)

Best Picture: Toy Story 3 Wrong! (The King’s Speech)
Best Director: David Fincher, The Social Network Wrong! (Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech)
Best Actor: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech Correct!
Best Actress: Natalie Portman, Black Swan Correct!
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter Correct!
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo, The Fighter Correct!
Best Original Screenplay: Inception, Christopher Nolan Wrong! (The King’s Speech)
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network, Aaron Sorkin Correct!
Best Editing: Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall, The Social Network Correct!
Best Cinematography: Danny Cohen, The King’s Speech Wrong! (Inception)
Best Original Score: Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, The Social Network Correct!
Best Original Song: Alan Menken, Glenn Slater, “I See the Light”, Tangled Wrong! (“We Belong Together”, Toy Story 3)
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3 Correct!
Best Art Direction: Netty Chapman, The King’s Speech Wrong! (Alice in Wonderland)
Best Costume Design: Jenny Beavan, The King’s Speech Wrong! (Alice in Wonderland)
Best Make-Up: Barney’s Version Wrong! (The Wolfman)
Best Sound Editing: Inception Correct!
Best Sound Mixing: The Social Network Wrong! (Inception)
Best Visual Effects: Inception Correct!
Best Documentary Feature: Exit Through the Gift Shop Wrong! (Inside Job)
Best Documentary Short: Strangers No More Correct!
Best Live Action Short: Wish 143 Wrong! (God of Love)
Best Animated Short: Day and Night Wrong! (The Lost Thing)
Best Foreign Language Film: Biutiful Wrong!

(those last 5, I don’t normally do, ‘cos I’ve hardly seen any of the nominees lol… but what the hell, like I said, it’s all fun, and with so many predictable categories this year, the more fun we can add the better…)

Tally: The Social Network: 5, The King’s Speech: 4, Inception: 3, Toy Story 3: 2, The Fighter: 2, Everything Else: 1

The rest of this post is just my old nomination predictions.


As the comments attest, I haven’t updated this nearly as much as I’d‘ve liked to this year… hopefully I’ll do a better job of keeping track for next year’s. At this point, a lot of these seem fairly obvious, with the real fun coming when it comes to the winners. So with that in mind, I’m gonna go ahead and pick my winners before the nominations for all categories… y’know, just for fun. [NB. I’m bumping this to the front page ‘cos I haven’t done so in a while and I’ve changed a lot, but I might still change a few, especially the technical ones further down the page, some of which have me really stumped lol…]

63/97 … slightly squiffy ‘cos I put 5 down for Animated (they picked 3) and only 3 for Original Song (there were 4) … but way up on my usual 50%-ish, and all my win hopes are still in there, so all-in-all, very nice…

Best Picture

  • Toy Story 3 [WIN] Right!
  • The Social Network Right!
  • Black Swan Right!
  • The King’s Speech Right!
  • 127 Hours Right!
  • Winter’s Bone Right!
  • Another Year Wrong!
  • The Fighter Right!
  • True Grit Right!
  • Inception Right!

Best Director

  • David Fincher, The Social Network [WIN] Right!
  • Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech Right!
  • Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan Right!
  • Debra Granik, Winter’s Bone Wrong!
  • Mike Leigh, Another Year Wrong!

Best Actor

  • Colin Firth, The King’s Speech [WIN] Right!
  • James Franco, 127 Hours Right!
  • Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs Wrong!
  • Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network Right!
  • Jeff Bridges, True Grit Right!

Best Actress

  • Natalie Portman, Black Swan [WIN] Right!
  • Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole Right!
  • Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone Right!
  • Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs Wrong!
  • Leslie Manville, Another Year Wrong!

Best Supporting Actor

  • Christian Bale, The Fighter [WIN] Right!
  • Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech Right!
  • Matt Damon, True Grit Wrong!
  • Justin Timberlake, The Social Network Wrong!
  • Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right Right!

Best Supporting Actress (NB. I am fully prepared to fall down on this category just for the sake of mentioning 3 of my favourite performances of the year, one of which isn’t even eligible LOL)

  • Melissa Leo, The Fighter [WIN] Right!
  • Amy Adams, The Fighter Right!
  • Elle Fanning, Somewhere Wrong!
  • Chloe Moretz, Kick-Ass Wrong!
  • Emily Watson, Cemetery Junction Wrong!

Best Original Screenplay

  • Inception, Christopher Nolan [WIN] Right!
  • The King’s Speech, David Seidler Right!
  • Somewhere, Sofia Coppola Wrong!
  • The Fighter, Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, Eric Johnson Right!
  • Black Swan, Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz, John J. McLaughlin Wrong!

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • The Social Network, Aaron Sorkin [WIN] Right!
  • Winter’s Bone, Debra Granik, Anne Rosselini Right!
  • Toy Story 3, Michael Arndt Right!
  • How to Train Your Dragon, William Davies, Dean DeBlois, Chris Sanders Wrong!
  • Never Let Me Go, Alex Garland Wrong!

Best Editing

  • The Social Network, Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall [WIN] Right!
  • Black Swan, Andrew Weisblum Right!
  • Inception, Lee Smith Wrong!
  • The King’s Speech, Tariq Anwar Right!
  • 127 Hours, Jon Harris Right!

Best Cinematography

  • Danny Cohen, The King’s Speech [WIN] Right!
  • Matthew Libatique, Black Swan Right!
  • Jeff Cronenweth, The Social Network Right!
  • Roger Deakins, True Grit Right!
  • Wally Pfister, Inception Right!

Best Original Score

  • Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, The Social Network [WIN] Right!
  • Randy Newman, Toy Story 3 Wrong!
  • A.R. Rahman, 127 Hours Right!
  • Alexandre Desplat, The King’s Speech Right!
  • Hans Zimmer, Inception Right!

Best Original Song

  • “I See the Light” – Alan Menken, Tangled Right! [WIN]
  • “We Belong Together” – Randy Newman, Toy Story 3 Right!
  • “If I Rise” – AR Rahman, 127 Hours Right!
  • Wrong!

Best Animated Feature

  • Toy Story 3 [WIN] Right!
  • Tangled Wrong!
  • How to Train Your Dragon Right!
  • The Illusionist Right!
  • Despicable Me Wrong!

Best Art Direction

Best Costume Design

Best Make Up

  • Barney’s Version Right!
  • The Fighter Wrong!
  • True Grit

Best Sound Mixing

Best Sound Effects Editing

  • Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 Wrong!
  • Inception Right!
  • 127 Hours Wrong!
  • How to Train Your Dragon Wrong!
  • Scott Pilgrim vs. The World Wrong!

Best Visual Effects

  • CK

    I wouldn’t rule out Mel Gibson as Best Actor for “The Beaver”. The potential is there.

  • JK

    Have you read the script? Yes, Mel Gibson is a possibility…and Anton Yelchin for supporting! The Academy likes to recognize up and commers in that category and that is a DYNAMITE role if he can pull it off!!

  • JK

    Are you gonna predict 10 best picture nominees now that they’ve changed thet playing field?

  • http://n/a Jezza

    I can attempt to predict a Best Original Song lineup.

    SONG ARTIST MOVIE
    We Belong Together Randy Newman Toy Story 3
    End Credits Chase & Status feat. Plan B Harry Brown
    Today was a Fairytale Taylor Swift Valentines Day
    We Dance On N-Dubz feat. Bodyrox Streetance 3D
    Alice (Underground) Avril Laveigne Alice in Wonderland

  • Ethan

    Wow. No respect for Inception. The movie that SHOULD dominate the Oscars. Will it, though? The Academy Awards are famous for awarding crappy movies, that no one saw, the victories. The Dark Knight and Chris Nolan were screwed years ago, it better not happen again. It’ll just prove how useless the Academy Awards really are.

  • http://www.caspermyers.com Melody

    The MatriXistenZ? No doubt it’ll be in there, don’t panic. Just not in my list. Overrated, not nearly as complicated/original as everybody says, and certainly no Dark Knight. I’ll be fine with the 5 tech nods I listed though.

  • http://imitationlife.wordpress.com Alberto

    I’m surprised nobody is talking about Polanski’s The Ghost Writer, at least in the directing and writing categories, plus an acting nod for Olivia Williams.
    And then, my favourite film of the year, Mike Leigh’s Another Year.
    Anyhow, here ar my choices so far:
    Picture: Another Year
    Director: Mike Leigh
    Actor: Tahar Rahim in A Prophet (will never happen, I know)
    Actress: Lesley Manville in Another Year
    Supp. actor: Guillermo Francella in The Secret of Their Eyes or Jim Broadbent in Another Year
    Supp. Actress: Olivia Williams in The Ghost Writer
    For whole list of predicted nominees and comments, read my blog Imitation of Life:
    http://imitationlife.wordpress.com/2010/09/09/best-of-the-year-early-oscar-predictions-2011/#more-615

  • jd

    how about Fighter in all major performance categories as well as supporitng,director and make up

  • nick

    toy story 3 might have a chance at being the first animated best picture

  • Kelly

    Toy Story 3 will get a Best Picture nod. I’m pretty much willing to bet on that.

    Original Song category is a wide open field, but in my opinion, only 2 songs stand out as clear and deserving winners.
    -“We Belong Together”, Toy Story 3 (Randy Newman)
    -“There’s a Place For Us”, The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader (Carrie Underwood)

    Both great songs, and have the extreme potential to walk away with the trophy.

  • Sarah

    Toy Story and Burlesque are givens for Best Orginal Song. Bound To You or You Haven’t Seen The Last Of Me will be nominated, and probably win.

  • Allison

    I think you under-estimated the Carrie Underwood Narnia song. It got a Globe nomination, and she is a 5 Time Grammy winner, so I wouldn’t ignore her industry clout. I also love the song she wrote. It is perfect for the Narnia film.

  • Landon

    I think inception will be nominated for best
    Picture, but I think the kings speech will win best
    Picture,

  • anon

    Well, this should def. be updated. Everyone seems to be raving about Black Swan. Aronofsky will definitely get Best Director.

  • http://www.caspermyers.com Melody

    @anon you’re right, I only just saw it recently – till then I was convinced it was only Portman’s movie… I knew I’d left a gap in my Best Picture nominations for something :)

  • http://allthingsnet.info Iliana Petti

    I believe that The Kings Speech will take out best picture.
    also Tom Hooper best director and Colin Firth Best Actor as he plays the part well, but i wonder if he
    had a speech impediment himself after playing the role.