2010 Oscar Predictions
March 5th, 2010 by MelodyOkay I’m done now
And the winner is … NOT ME! lol 8/21 is my final score. Just 2 better than last year. I really thought I’d do at least a little better than that. It was still a far from disappointing night, though. I think back to last year’s Slumdog sweep and I don’t know how my love of Oscar even survived that. Baldwin/Martin gags were lame but made me laugh buckets … even Sandra Bullock earned her win with a beautifully engineered speech. And I don’t think I’ll ever be able to go back to regular Moët after sipping a Grand Vintage over 4 hours!
Best Picture: Up in the Air (that’s my final answer) I still really want Up in the Air, but feel like Inglourious Basterds is the one I’ll be most happy with in years to come. I’ll be fine with Avatar or The Hurt Locker
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker) I’m fairly convinced this is hers.
Best Actor: Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker) I don’t want Jeff Bridges to win this (if he does, I’ll pretend it’s for The Big Lebowski). I’d prefer Jeremy Renner of The Hurt Locker, and this is the first time I’ve ever really been happy with a Clooney nomination. I’ve still not seen A Single Man. Really, anyone but Bridges or Freeman (I didn’t think either were very good at all).
Best Actress: Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia) As with Bridges in the Actor category, I don’t want Bullock to win this (if she does, I’ll pretend it’s for 28 Days). Until I saw Julie & Julia the other day (review soon hopefully), I was Gabby Sidibe all the way on this – it just doesn’t seem they could give the Oscar to Mo’Nique and then not recognise her too, and she is fantastic in Precious (review of that soon too). Then I saw Julie & Julia and I haven’t seen a more joyous movie all year. It’s the first time in my lifetime that Meryl Streep has been nominated and I actually really wanted her to win. I haven’t seen The Last Station.
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds) One of the few cases where I couldn’t be happier with the favourite.
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique (Precious) I’d love for one of the Up in the Air girls to win but even I can’t pick just one so I concede it must be Mo’Nique’s.
Best Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds (Quentin Tarantino) I wish this was a bigger no brainer than it seems…
Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air (Jason Reitman) This seems to be the only one I can seriously hope for for my favourite movie of the year.
Best Editing: The Hurt Locker I thought I was as torn on this category as the other smaller tech categories, then what Roger Ebert wrote in his predix made me realise why my gut had chosen The Hurt Locker and now I’m certain. This is almost as deserving of a win as Thelma Schoonmaker’s work on The Departed was 3 years ago.
Best Cinematography: The Hurt Locker
Best Animated Feature: The Princess and the Frog This might be one of my “wasted predix” but I just found this one so much better than the other nominees.
Best Art Direction: Avatar One of the few you really can’t argue that this movie actually deserves.
Best Costume Design: The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus Just ‘cos of the ones I’ve seen this was the movie I liked most, but not that much. Inglourious Basterds shoulda been in here.
Best Make-Up: Star Trek Another “meh” category. I simply haven’t seen the other nominees.
Best Visual Effects: Avatar No-brainer of the year.
Best Sound Effects Editing: Inglourious Basterds Shrugs lol. Another I might change before the show. None really stood out greatly to me as better than the others.
Best Sound Mixing: Avatar See above. Just, nothing for Transformers 2, please.
Best Score: The Hurt Locker I swapped this out of my nominations predix for the Public Enemies score at the last minute and was surprised when it came up. I watched the movie again a week or so ago and was reminded why I originally thought it should be nominated.
Best Original Song: “Almost There”, The Princess and the Frog I know, it’s probably “Crazy Heart”, but I just didn’t even like the song in that movie let alone Bridges. I’d much prefer my fave song from Princess get this, like Disney used to.
Best Documentary Feature: The Cove I’m sure this one’s between Food Inc. and The Cove (reviews to come soon hopefully), and I think Food Inc is a much more important movie, but The Cove packs an emotional punch you just can’t forget and with its closing line about “if we can’t stop this, than we can’t stop anything“ (words to that effect), arguably does make it more important too than the all-embracing Food Inc.
Best Foreign Language Film: The White Ribbon has it, I think. Pretty sure this is between The White Ribbon and Un Prophete … I hope to see both in the next couple of days…
I also hope to watch 6 of the nominated shorts before Sunday, in which case I might include those categories for the first time. (thought there were some on Sky Anytime but they were old ones, grr). Anyway, that is all for now
Nominations Predictions from earlier
*Currently tallying*… doing this way too fast, alert me if I’ve made an error with any of my red/green right/wrong indicators
53/96 … almost exactly the same as last year!
Okay, I think I’m done. Nominations are tomorrow. As always, my final list is a complex combination of actual informed expectations, personal preferences, and the odd wild card, with the final deciding factor always being “does it sit well with me?” 2010 has been that rare year where I can truly say all of the following sit pretty darn well with me, and that happens to match up nicely with the prevailing trends on predicting sites. As I’ve said already, once I saw Up in the Air and loved it so darn much, I knew everything was gonna be okay.
Edit: lol and I already made a swap – Michael Gambon is the only thing I think Half-Blood Prince should be up for. It’s almost less likely even than Isabelle Fuhrman but I’ll probably get less WTFs for it
Best Picture
- Up in the Air
[WIN] - Inglourious Basterds

- Avatar

- The Hurt Locker

- An Education

- Up

- Precious

- District 9

- Star Trek

- The Lovely Bones

Best Director
- Jason Reitman, Up in the Air

- Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
[WIN] - Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

- James Cameron, Avatar

- Lee Daniels, Precious

Best Actor
- Sam Rockwell, Moon

- Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

- George Clooney, Up in the Air

- Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

- Michael Sheen, The Damned United

Best Actress
- Zoe Saldana, Avatar

- Saoirse Ronan, The Lovely Bones

- Carey Mulligan, An Education

- Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

- Gabby Sidibe, Precious

Best Supporting Actor
- Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
[WIN] - Alfred Molina, An Education

- Christan McKay, Me and Orson Welles

- Michael Gambon, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince

- Matt Damon, Invictus

Best Supporting Actress
- Isabelle Fuhrman, Orphan

- Sigourney Weaver, Avatar

- Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air

- Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds

- Mo’Nique, Precious

Best Original Screenplay
- Moon, Nathan Parker

- The Hurt Locker, Mark Boal

- Inglourious Basterds, Quentin Tarantino

- Up

- (500) Days of Summer

Best Adapted Screenplay
- Up in the Air

- The Road

- An Education

- The Lovely Bones

- The Damned United

Best Editing
- Dana E. Glauberman, Up in the Air

- Chris Innis, Bob Murawski, The Hurt Locker

- Sally Menke, Inglourious Basterds

- Maryann Brandon & Mary Jo Markey, Star Trek

- Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua, James Cameron, Avatar

Best Cinematography
- Robert Richardson, Inglourious Basterds

- Mauro Fiore, Avatar

- Tom Stern, Invictus

- Roger Deakins, A Serious Man

- Barry Ackroyd, The Hurt Locker

Best Score
- Coraline – Bruno Coulais

- The Princess and the Frog – Randy Newman

- Up – Michael Giacchino

- Public Enemies – Eliot Goldenthal

- Up in the Air – Rolfe Kent

Best Original Song
- “Dreaming” – Bruno Coulais, Coraline

- “Butterfly Fly Away” – Alan Silvestri, Glen Ballard, Hannah Montana: the Movie

- “Almost There” – Randy Newman, The Princess and the Frog

- “I See You” – Avatar

- “The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)” – Crazy Heart

Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Animated Feature
Best Visual Effects
Best Art Direction
- Rick Carter, Robert Stromberg, Avatar

- Inglourious Basterds

- Hideki Arichi, Josh Fifarek, Moon

- Coraline

- Star Trek

Best Costume Design
- Coraline

- Inglourious Basterds

- Public Enemies

- Cheri

- The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus

Best Make-Up
- Star Trek

- District 9

- The Road



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